Key Point: “Just based on the mathematics of his decline in deep red states, many Republican-leaning voters (most of them rural) appear to be balking at the president’s trade policies. In our data, Trump is net unpopular on trade in 40 of 50 states. … The president’s policies are broadly unpopular on the ground, including in states critical to his 2024 coalition and in places where Senate races could flip control of the chamber in 2026.”

Strength in Numbers: Trump is underwater on trade in 40 states

By G. Elliott Morris

• My predictive model trained on 4,000 interviews with U.S. adults shows that Trump’s approval on trade is just 41% in the average state, whereas 59% disapprove of his job performance in the area. Trump is below 45% in every major battleground state — including Iowa, Texas, and Florida, where Republican senators are running for re-election next year.

• In competitive states, Trump is weakest in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where just 39% of voters approve of how he’s handling trade, followed closely by Nevada at 40% and Michigan at 41%. These are states where the margin of victory in the 2024 presidential elections was razor-thin, so a twenty-point deficit for the president represents meaningful degradation in support for his agenda.

• And even in swing states where Trump performed better in 2025, he remains firmly underwater on tariffs. On average, in all competitive states, Trump’s approval on tariffs is 10 points below his vote share in the 2024 presidential election.

• Aside from state-level patterns, there’s also a noticeable regional gradient. The tariffs are least popular in the Northeast (average approval = 36%) and the West (40%), where high-cost coastal metros and consumption patterns likely make price increases more salient. …

• There’s a plausible effect of cross-border trade, too; Trump is underwater on tariffs in all border states except North Dakota (where he’s only at 51% approval). Trump’s tariffs on trade with Mexico and Canada have tended to be less popular than his tariffs on far-off countries.

• Finally, while tariffs are expected to be losers in deep-blue states, Trump is only barely holding on in many deep-red ones too. The president rarely breaks the mid-50s in most of his key strongholds. He’s at 56% in West Virginia, for example, a state he won with 70% of the vote in 2024.

• This suggests tariffs aren’t simply a partisan loyalty test. Just based on the mathematics of his decline in deep red states, many Republican-leaning voters (most of them rural) appear to be balking at the president’s trade policies.

• In our data, Trump is net unpopular on trade in 40 of 50 states.

• … The president’s policies are broadly unpopular on the ground, including in states critical to his 2024 coalition and in places where Senate races could flip control of the chamber in 2026.